CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z THU 29/01 - 06Z FRI 30/01 2004
ISSUED: 28/01 15:41Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Eastern Mediterranean

General thunderstorms are forecast across Northern Central Europe

General thunderstorms are forecast across Southwestern Iberian Peninsula

SYNOPSIS

Expanded long-wave trough situated over the central portions of Europe. Convectively mixed polar airmass enters into northern central Europe. Along the southeastern edge of the long-wave trough ... cold front stretches from Greece to northern Africa.

DISCUSSION

...Eastern Mediterranean...
Focus of convective activity should be the southeastern edge of the long-wave trough, where relatively warm airmass is expected. Over the eastern Mediterranean, propagating cold front will provide low-level upward forcing. Affected airmass shows weak instability in the lowest kilometers. Thunderstorms should develop along the cold front. Severe thunderstorms are not likely due to poor low-level wind shear and weak instability. Over the Adratic Sea ... propagating short-wave trough is expected. DCVA and affected UVM may be sufficient for some thunderstorms over the relatively warm sea water.

...Northern Central Europe ...
Convetively mixed airmass should lead to convection. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast. As strong surface pressure gradient will be in place, some severe wind gusts are possible. As instability should be weak ... and synotic forcing should be not strong enough for organization ... it is not expected that convection will enhance severe threat significantly.

...Southwestern Iberian Peninsula ...
Warm airmass will reach the southwestern Iberian Peninsula at the end of the forecast period. Model output suggests CAPE in the order of some 100s J/kg. Along a cold front west of the Iberian Peninsula ... showers and thunderstorms are expected. Low-level shear and synoptic forcing should be weak and severe threat seems to be low.

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